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# Reservoir Uncertainty and Probability Mapping

Uncertainty and probability mapping is a strong point of GeolOil. Today, computing values of P10, P50, and P90 for a fixed selected property, is a common feature, and GeolOil offers computing of Pp maps, i.e. Pp = f(x,y), a 2D map for each geological layer. This helps to asses risks, plan exploitation strategies, as well as computing probabilities for any outcome. Now computing pessimistic, median and optimistic (P25, P50, P75) scenarios maps for net-pay for instance, or any other property, is easy. This is done with our exclusive GeolOil Script Programming Language.

The computations are based on an unique variant of beta distributions developed by GeolOil, now released to the public.

 Pessimistic Scenario. Standard P50 Scenario. Optimistic Scenario. The image above shows an example of a pessimistic scenario for the total hydrocarbon column. A set of geostatistical realizations are performed, and then, for each (x,y) location, the left 25% tail percentile distribution is computed, yielding a global pessimistic scenario map, with low values of hydrocarbon column phi*(1-SW)*h The image above shows an example of a median standard scenario for the total hydrocarbon column. A set of geostatistical realizations are performed, and then, for each (x,y) location, the centered 50% median distribution is estimated, yielding a global median scenario map, with median values of hydrocarbon column phi*(1-SW)*h The image above shows an example of an optimistic scenario for the total hydrocarbon column. A set of geostatistical realizations are performed, and then, for each (x,y) location, the left 75% tail percentile distribution is computed, (i.e., the 25% right tail) given a global optimistic scenario map, with high values of hydrocarbon column phi*(1-SW)*h This type of map is useful for a conservative early time reservoir exploitation, when it is mainly into consideration those regions more likely to hold oil accumulations, with low level of risk. This type of map is a typical standard to study present time reservoir exploitation. It is similar to a krigged or E type standard map. This type of map is useful for exploring mature time reservoir exploitation planning, when it is mainly into consideration the findings of new oil accumulations regions, accepting risks.
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